Resumo
Em um mundo competitivo e globalizado, a previsão de demanda assume um importante papel para o planejamento das operações e na sua transição para uma cadeia de suprimentos sustentável. Neste sentido, o objetivo do presente trabalho é descrever a previsão de demanda como uma ferramenta estratégica de sustentabilidade aplicável a uma PME brasileira. Para a previsão de demanda utilizou-se o modelo de redes neurais artificiais e o fill rate como indicador do nível de serviço oferecido ao consumidor, assim como do custo de oportunidade em resposta à demanda. O estudo também estabeleceu relação de causa-efeito entre a acuracidade da previsão, a responsividade da demanda e o desempenho econômico, ambiental e social decorrentes do processo. Em concordância com os conceitos da VBRN e do 3BL, o estudo demonstrou que a previsão de demanda proporciona eficiência na utilização dos recursos, melhorias na responsividade do cliente e evita “perdas” por stock out e por overstock na cadeia de suprimentos. Além deste ganho econômico, a previsão de demanda reduz a quantidade de resíduos gerados pelo vencimento de produtos no varejo, melhora o atendimento da demanda e a satisfação do consumidor, com consequentes ganhos ambientais e sociais. Trata-se de um estudo de caso descritivo, ex-post facto e de corte temporal seccional, com utilização de dados qualitativos, dados quantitativos históricos e observação direta.Referências
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