Development of a Dynamic and Adaptive Model as a Tool for Strategic Guidance in Aerospace Organizations

Dinah Eluze Sales Leite, Milton de Freitas Chagas Junior


Objective: The article proposes a strategic model, dynamic and adaptive, aiming to improve the capture and use of opportunities in the selection of the technology portfolio in complex and uncertain environments.

Method: The methodology defined in this research is the study of multiple cases in the Design Science approach. We seek to generate scientific knowledge about the selection of technologies in organizations in the aerospace sector through the development and application of the proposed model. The study also considers a combination of inductive and abductive logic to deal with the inherent uncertainty in the R&D environment.

Originality/Relevance: From a theoretical point of view, the main gaps in technological strategy in the aerospace sector can be highlighted: decision making under uncertainty, the lack of integration between areas in decision making, and limitations in the time horizon of strategic development.

Results: The main expected results, with the application of the model, are: (1) improve the capture, and use of opportunities, (2) improve the competitive advantage of the organization, and (3) contribute to a more flexible technology strategy in the long term. The cases explored allowed the detailing of the impacts of decision making on strategic development and the technologies domain in the definition of technological routes.

Theoretical contributions: From a theoretical point of view, the research contributes to the dynamic capabilities model, including seizing to generative sensing.

Management contributions: From a practical point of view, the development of the model contributes to aerospace organizations' strategic management to make them more robust, agile, and flexible.


Technological strategy; Dynamic capabilities; Uncertainty; Ambidexterity; Decision making


Albrechts, L. (2004). Strategic (spatial) planning reexamined. Environment and Planning B, 31(5), 743-758.

Augier, M., & Teece, D. J. (2008). Strategy as Evolution with Design: The Foundations of Dynamic Capabilities and the Role of Managers in the Economic System. Organization Studies, 29(8–9), 1187–1208.

Azizian, N., Sarkani, S., & Mazzuchi, T. (2009). A comprehensive review and analysis of maturity assessment approaches for improved decision support to achieve efficient defense acquisition. In Proceedings of the World Congress on Engineering and Computer Science, 2, San Francisco, CA.

Barney, J. (1991). Firm resources and sustained competitive advantage. Journal of Management, 17(1), 99-120.

Ben–Haim, R., Ben–Haim, G., & Shiftan, Y. (2018). Penetration and impact of advanced car technologies. MOJ Civil Eng., 4 (4), 175‒184.

Brown, S. L., & Eisenhardt, K. (1997). The Art of Continuous Change: Linking Complexity Theory and Time-Paced Evolution in Relentlessly Shifting Organizations. Administrative Science Quarterly, 42(1), 1-34.

Bülthoff, H. (2017). Flying Air Taxis: the next big game changer? Talk presented at Universität Ulm: Colloquium Cognitive Systems. Ulm, Germany.

Chagas Junior, M. F., Leite, D. E. S., & Jesus, G. T. (2017). ‘Coupled processes’ as dynamic capabilities in systems integration. Revista de Administração de Empresas, 57(3), 245-257.

Courtney, H., Kirkland, J., & Viguerie, P. (1997). Strategy Under Uncertainty. Harvad Business Review, 67-79.

De Sordi, J. O., Azevedo, M. C., Meireles, M. A., & Campanario, M. A. (2013). A Abordagem Design Science no Brasil segundo as publicações em administração da informação. In: Encontro da Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa em Administração (EnANPAD), 2013, Rio de Janeiro. XXXVII Encontro da ANPAD, 1, 1-16.

Dong, A., Garbuio, M., & Lovallo, D. (2016). Generative sensing: a design perspectivemicro-foundationsndations of sensing capabilities. California Management Review, 58(4), 97-117.

Drucker, P. (2011). The age of discontinuity: guidelines to our changing society. Transaction Publishing, New Jersey.

Eisenhardt, K. M. (1989). Building theories from case study research. Academy of Management Review, 14(4), 532-550.

Eisenhardt, K. M., & Martin, J. A. (2000) Dynamic capabilities: what are they? Strategic Management Journal, 21, 1105–1121.

Eisenhardt, K. M., & Sull, D. (2001). Strategy as simple rules. Harvard Business Review, 79(1), 106-119.

Eisenhardt, K. M., Graebner, M. E. (2007). Theory building from cases: opportunities and challenges. Academy of Management Journal, 50(1), 25-32.

Grant, R. M. (1991). The Resource-Based Theory of Competitive Advantage: Implications for Strategy Formulation. Californian Management Review, 33(3), 114–135

Godet, M. (1983). Méthode des Scénarios. Revista Futuribles.

Haasnoot M., Kwakkel J. H., Walker, W., & ter Maat, J. (2013). Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: a new method for crafting Robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world. Global Environmental Change, 23(2), 485-498.

Hallegatte, S., Shah, A., Lempert, R., Brown, C., & Gill, S. (2012). Investment decision making under deep uncertainty application to climate change. The World Bank.

Helfat, C. E., & Peteraf, M. A. (2009). Understanding dynamic capabilities: progress along a developmental path. Strategic Organization, 7(1), 91-102.

Hevner, A. R., March, S. T., Park, J., & Ram, S. (2004). Design science in information systems research. MIS Quarterly, 28(1), 75-105.

Kwakkel, J. H., Pruyt, E. (2013). Exploratory Modeling and Analysis, an approach for model-based foresight under deep uncertainty. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80(3), 419-431.

Levinthal, D. (1992) Surviving Schumpeterian environments: an evolutionary perspective. Industrial Corporate Change, 1(3), 427-443.

Mankins, J. C. (2009a). Technology readiness and risk assessments: a new approach. Acta Astronautica, 65, 1208-1215.

Mankins, J. C. (2009b). Technology readiness assessment: a retrospective. Acta Astronautica, 65, 1216-1223.

Mankins, J. C. (2002). Approaches to strategic research and technology (R&T) analysis and road mapping. Acta Astronautica, 51(1–9), 3–21.

McInerney, D., Lempert, R., & Keller, K. (2012). What are robust strategies in the face of uncertain climate threshold responses. Climate Change, 112, 547–568.

Niedermeier, D., & Lambregts, A. A. (2012). Fly-by-Wire augmented manual control - basic design considerations, ICAS 2012, 28th International Congress of the Aeronautical Sciences (ICAS), Brisbane, Australia.

Peirce, C. S. (1998). The Essential Peirce. Selected Philosophical Writings, 2, 1893–1913. The Peirce Edition Project, (Eds.) Bloomington: Indiana University Press.

Peirce, C. S. (1974) Collected papers de Charles Sanders Peirce. In: Hartshorne, C., Weiss, P., Burks, A. (Eds.) Cambridge, Massachusetts, Harvard University Press, 1-8.

Peirce, C. S. (1958) The fixation of belief. In: Hartshorne, C., Weiss, P., Burks, A. (Eds.), Collected Papers of Charles Sanders Peirce, Cambridge, Massachusetts, Harvard University Press, 5, 223-247, 1931-1935 (First published 1877).

Penrose, E. T. (1959). The theory of the growth of the firm. New York: John Wiley.

Pisano, G. P. (2016). Toward a prescriptive theory of dynamic capabilities: connecting strategic choice, learning, and competition. Industrial and Corporate Change, 26(5), 747-762.

Prahalad, C. K., & Hamel, G. (1990). The core competence of the Corporation. Harvard Business Review, 79–91.

Ramírez, R., & Selin, C. (2014). Plausibility and probability in scenario planning. Foresight, 16(1), 54–74.

Rohrbeck, R. (2010). Corporate foresight: towards a maturity model for the future orientation of a firm. Physica-Verlag, Springer, Heidelberg and New York.

Rohrbeck, R. & Schwarz, J. O. (2013). The value contribution of strategic foresight: Insights from an empirical study of large European companies. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, 80(8), 1593-1606.

Rohrbeck, R. (2014). Trend Scanning, Scouting and Foresight Techniques. In Management of the Fuzzy Front End of Innovation; Gassmann, O., Schweitzer, F., Eds.; Springer: Cham, Switzerland, 59-73.

RTCA Inc. (1992). DO-178B software considerations in airborne systems and equipment certification, Washington, D.C., EUA.

SAE International. (1996). ARP-4754 certification considerations for highly integrated or complex aircraft systems, Warrendale, PA, EUA.

Schoemaker, P. J. H. (1995). Scenario planning: a tool for strategic thinking. Sloan Management Review, 36(25).

Schwartz, P. (1991). The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World. Doubleday Currency, New York.

Schwarz, J. O. (2008). Assessing the future of future studies in management. Futures, 40(3), 237-246.

Schwarz, J. O., Rohrbeck, R., Wach, B. (2019). Corporate foresight as a microfoundation of dynamic capabilities. Future Foresight Sci., 2 (2), e28, 1-11.

Simon, H. A. (1996). The sciences of the artificial. 3rd. ed. Cambridge, MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press.

Spitzer, C. R. (2011). The Avionics Handbook. CRC Press.

Teece, D. J., & Pisano, G. (1994). The dynamic capabilities of firms: an Introduction. Industrial and Corporate Change, 3(3), 537-556.

Teece, D. J., Pisano, G., & Shuen, A. (1997). Dynamic capabilities and strategic management. Strategic Management Journal, 18(7), 509-533.

Teece, D. J. (2007). Explicating dynamic capabilities: the nature and microfoundations of (sustainable) enterprise performance. Strategic Management Journal, 28(13), 1319-1350.

Teece, D. J., Peteraf, M., & Leih, S. (2016). Dynamic capabilities and organizational agility: risk, uncertainty, and strategy in the innovation economy. California Management Review, 58(4), 13-35.

Teece, D. J. (2018). Business models and dynamic capabilities, Long Range Planning, 51, 40-49.

Van der Heijden, K., Bradfield, R., Burt, G., Cairns, G. & Wright, G. (2002). Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organisational Learning with Scenarios. John Wiley & Sons.

Van der Heijden, K. (2005). Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation. John Wiley & Sons.

Wack, P. (1985). Scenarios: shooting the rapids. Harvard Business Review, 140-150.

Wernerfelt, B. (1984). A Resource-based View of the Firm. Strategic Management Journal, 5(2), 171-180.

Winter, S. G. (2004). Specialised perception, selection, and strategic surprise: learning from the Moths and Bees. Long Range Planning, 37(2), 163-169.


Article Metrics

Metrics Loading ...

Metrics powered by PLOS ALM

Copyright (c) 2020 Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies

Future Stud. Res. J. e-ISSN: 2175-5825

Mailing Address: Avenida Drª Ruth Cardoso, 7221 - CEP 05425-070 - Pinheiros - São Paulo/SP - Brasil

The publications of this journal are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.