Data gathering for actor analyses: A research note on the collection and aggregation of individual respondent data for MACTOR

Gareth H Rees, Stephen MacDonell

Abstract


The augmentation of future studies with data on actors and their interactions is suggested as a means to reduce uncertainty and to account for extreme or unexpected future outcomes due to the involvement of multiple actors and their competing perspectives and options. In the context of New Zealand’s health workforce forecasting environment, this research note presents a systematic method to gather and aggregate actor data developed for a recent foresight study. The method identifies the issues encountered and solutions developed when gathering data from time poor respondents representing diverse and sometimes oppositional actors, and for the coding and aggregation of these data for use in LIPSOR’s actor analysis tool, MACTOR. Worked examples are provided to demonstrate the method’s application with the software.


Keywords


Actor analysis; Actor data collection; MACTOR; Foresight; Health workforce forecasting

Full Text:

English Version

References


Ahmed, M. T., Saleh, M., Abdelkadir, A. F., & Abdelrehim, A. (2009). El Maghara scenario a search for sustainability and equity: An Egyptian case study. Journal of Futures Studies, 14(2), 55-90.

Arcade, J., Godet, M., Meunier, F., & Roubelat, F. (2009). Structural analysis with the MICMAC method & actor's strategy with MACTOR method. In J. C. Glenn & T. J. Gordon (Eds.), Futures Research Methodology - V3.0 (pp. 1-69). Washington, DC: The Millennium Project. Retrieved from http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/FRM-V3.html.

Bendahan, S., Camponovo, G., & Pigneur, Y. (2004). Multi-issue actor analysis: tools and models for assessing technology environments. Journal of Decision Systems, 13(2), 223-253.

Bettencourt, R. (2010). Strategic prospective for the implementation of employment policies in the Azores. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77(9), 1566-1574. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.026

Bijl, R. (1992). Delphi in a future scenario study on mental health and mental health care. Futures, 24(3), 232-250. doi: 10.1016/0016-3287(92)90033-C

Cairns, G., Wright, G., & Fairbrother, P. (2016). Promoting articulated action from diverse stakeholders in response to public policy scenarios: A case analysis of the use of ‘scenario improvisation’ method. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 103, 97-108. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.10.009

Cicourel, A. V. (1964). Method and measurement in sociology. New York: The Free Press.

Coates, J. F. (2006). Preface. In M. Godet (Ed.), Creating futures: Scenario planning as a strategic management tool (2 ed., pp. XI). Paris: Economica Ltd.

de Savigny, D., & Adam, T. (2009). Systems thinking for health systems strengthening. Geneva: World Health Organisation.

Garrett, M. J. (1999). Health futures: a handbook for health professionals. Geneva: World Health Organisation.

Gauld, R. (2005). New Zealand. In R. Gauld (Ed.), Comparative health policy in the Pacific (pp. 200-224). Maidenhead: Open University Press.

Glouberman, S., & Mintzberg, H. (2001). Managing the care of health and the cure of disease—Part I: Differentiation. Health Care Management Review, 26(1), 56-69.

Godet, M. (1979). The crisis in forecasting and the emergence of the "prospective" approach: with case studies in energy and air transport Pergamon Policy Studies (Vol. 15). Oxford: Pergamon Press.

Godet, M. (1982). From Forecasting to 'La Prospective' A New Way of Looking at Futures. Journal of Forecasting, 1(3), 293-301.

Godet, M. (1991). Actors' moves and strategies: The mactor method. An air transport case study. Futures, 23(6), 605-622.

Godet, M. (2000). The art of scenarios and strategic planning: Tools and pitfalls. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 65(1), 3-22. doi: 10.1016/s0040-1625(99)00120-1

Godet, M. (2006). Creating futures: Scenario planning as a strategic management tool (2 ed.). Paris: Economica Ltd.

Godet, M., Bassaler, N., Monti, R., & Richou, S. (2004). LIPSOR's Guideline for strategic prospective workshops. Paris: LIPSOR.

Godet, M., Monti, R., Meunier, F., & Roubelat, F. (2009). A tool box for scenario planning. In J. C. Glenn & T. J. Gordon (Eds.), Futures Research Methodology - V3.0 (pp. 1-73). Washington, DC: The Millennium Project. Retrieved from http://www.millennium-project.org/millennium/FRM-V3.html.

Gorman, D. F. (2015). Developing health care workforces for uncertain futures. Academic Medicine, 90(4), 400-403. doi: 10.1097/ACM.0000000000000644

Gorman, D. F., & Brooks, P. M. (2009). On solutions to the shortage of doctors in Australia and New Zealand. Medical Journal of Australia, 190(3), 152-156.

Health Workforce Advisory Committee. (2005). Fit for purpose and practice: a review of the medical workforce in New Zealand (pp. 1-168). Wellington: Health Workforce Advisory Committee.

Heger, T., & Rohrbeck, R. (2012). Strategic foresight for collaborative exploration of new business fields. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 79(5), 819-831. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.11.003

Hinings, C. R. (2004). Professions in organizations. In N. J. Smelser & P. B. Baltes (Eds.), International encyclopedia of the social and behavioral sciences (pp. 12160-12166). Amsterdam: Elsevier.

Lafourcade, B., & Chapuy, P. (2000). Scenarios and Actors' Strategies: The Case of the Agri-Foodstuff Sector. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 65(1), 67-80. doi: 10.1016/S0040-1625(99)00128-6

Lakner, Z. (2013). Main actors and their strategies in Hungarian higher education. Acta Oeconomica, 63(2), 201-224. doi: 10.1556/AOecon.63.2013.2.4

Liamputtong, P. (2011). Focus group methodology: Principle and practice. London: Sage Publications.

Lo, C.-C., Wang, C.-H., & Huang, C.-C. (2013). The national innovation system in the Taiwanese photovoltaic industry: A multiple stakeholder perspective. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80(5), 893-906. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.08.016

MacKay, R. B., & McKiernan, P. (2010). Creativity and dysfunction in strategic processes: The case of scenario planning. Futures, 42(4), 271-281. doi: 10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.013

Masini, E. B., & Medina Vasquez, J. (2000). Scenarios as seen from a human and social perspective. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 65(1), 49-66. doi: 10.1016/S0040-1625(99)00127-4

Munteanu, R., & Apetroae, M. (2007). Journal relatedness: An actor-actor and actor-objectives case study. Scientometrics, 73(2), 215-230. doi: 10.1007/s11192-007-1735-7

National Health Workforce Planning and Research Collaboration. (2011). Alternative approaches to health workforce planning: Final report (pp. 1-56). Adelaide: Health Workforce Australia.

Ogden, R. (2008). Sensitive topics. In L. M. Given (Ed.), The Sage Encyclopedia of Qualitative Research Methods (pp. 811-812). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.

Pincombe, B., Blunden, S., Pincombe, A., & Dexter, P. (2013). Ascertaining a hierarchy of dimensions from time-poor experts: Linking tactical vignettes to strategic scenarios. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 80(4), 584–598. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.05.001

Riedy, C. (2009). The influence of futures work on public policy and sustainability. Foresight, 11(5), 40-56. doi: 10.1108/14636680910994950

Taylor, M. C. (2005). Interviewing. In I. Holloway (Ed.), Qualitative Research in Health Care. Maidenhead, Berkshire: McGraw-Hill International.

Varvasovszky, Z., & Brugha, R. (2000). A stakeholder analysis. Health Policy and Planning, 15(3), 338-345.

Vivanco-Aranda, M., Mojica, F. J., & Martínez-Cordero, F. J. (2011). Foresight analysis of tilapia supply chains (Sistema Producto) in four states in Mexico: Scenarios and strategies for 2018. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 78(3), 481-497. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2010.05.005

Wright, G., & Cairns, G. (2011). Scenario thinking: Practical approaches to the future. Basingstoke, UK: Palgrave Macmillan.

Wright, G., & Goodwin, P. (2009). Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: Enhancing the scenario method. International Journal of Forecasting, 25, 813-825. doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.05.019

Yamakawa, P., Cadillo, G., & Tornero, R. (2012). Critical factors for the expansion of broadband in developing countries: The case of Peru. Telecommunications Policy, 36(7), 560-570. doi: 10.1016/j.telpol.2012.03.004




DOI: https://doi.org/10.24023/FutureJournal/2175-5825/2017.v9i1.256

Article Metrics

Metrics Loading ...

Metrics powered by PLOS ALM




Copyright (c) 2017 Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Future Stud. Res. J. e-ISSN: 2175-5825

Mailing Address: Avenida Drª Ruth Cardoso, 7221 - CEP 05425-070 - Pinheiros - São Paulo/SP - Brasil

Licença Creative Commons
Este obra está licenciado com uma Licença Creative Commons Atribuição-NãoComercial 4.0 Internacional.