Prospective scenarios for offshore private banking firms serving Brazilians in 2040


  • Daniel Pedrosa Sousa Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo da Fundação Getulio Vargas- FGV/EAESP, São Paulo, (Brasil).
  • Gilberto Sarfati Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo da Fundação Getulio Vargas- FGV/EAESP, São Paulo, (Brasil)



Prospective scenarios, Private Banking, Offshore finance, Investor´s education, Financial regulation


Objective: This article aims to explore potential future scenarios for the offshore Private Banking industry serving Brazilian individuals, considering the increasing competition.

Methods:  The research employs the Prospective Scenarios approach, including a Delphi panel with industry’s experts in two rounds of interviews.

Results: The results indicated a consensus among the participants regarding two driving forces for the offshore Private Banking Industry: Regulation and Educational Challenges. The work builds four prospective scenarios for 2040: The Sky is the limit; Swimming against the Tide; The Dark Ages; and Too Much Openness Misses the Optimal Point.

Conclusions: The research   concludes that Private Banking firms should closely monitor the main regulations that can impact their business. In addition, offshore Private Banking firms should invest in educating potential investors in Brazil, especially the rising affluent segment and the millennials demographic group, leveraging all the technological resources at their disposal. Both scholars and practitioners might also replicate the methodology used of prospective scenarios using Delphi (Lima, 2014; Skulmoski, Hartman & Krahn, 2007) method to other sectors.


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Author Biographies

Daniel Pedrosa Sousa, Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo da Fundação Getulio Vargas- FGV/EAESP, São Paulo, (Brasil).

Mestre em Administração de Empresas pela Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo da Fundação Getulio Vargas- FGV/EAESP, São Paulo, (Brasil). CEO Brasil Plural Securities.

Gilberto Sarfati, Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo da Fundação Getulio Vargas- FGV/EAESP, São Paulo, (Brasil)

Doutor em Ciência Política pela Universidade de São Paulo - USP, São Paulo, (Brasil). Coordenador do Mestrado Profissional em Gestão para a Competitividade (MPGC) na Fundação Getulio Vargas - FGV. Professor Adjunto da Escola de Adminstração de Empresas de São Paulo da Fundação Getulio Vargas - FGV EAESP, São Paulo, (Brasil). 




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How to Cite

Sousa, D. P., & Sarfati, G. (2022). Prospective scenarios for offshore private banking firms serving Brazilians in 2040. Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies, 14(1), e0632.



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